Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems

It is widely recognized that segregation processes are often the result of complex nonlinear dynamics. Empirical analyses of complex dynamics are however rare, because there is a lack of appropriate empirical modeling techniques that are capable of capturing complex patterns and nonlinearities. At the same time, we know that many social phenomena display nonlinearities. In this article, we introduce a new modeling tool in order to partly fill this void in the literature. Using data of all secondary schools in Stockholm county during the years 1990 to 2002, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to identify complex dynamic patterns like tipping points and multiple phase transitions with respect to segregation. We establish critical thresholds in schools’ ethnic compositions, in general, and in relation 1 School of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK 2 Institute for Analytical Sociology, Linköping University, Norrköping, Sweden 3 Department of Mathematics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden Corresponding Author: Viktoria Spaiser, School of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK. Email: [email protected] Sociological Methods & Research 1-33 a The Author(s) 2016 Reprints and permission: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0049124116626174 smr.sagepub.com at Linkoping University Library on June 1, 2016 smr.sagepub.com Downloaded from to various factors such as school quality and parents’ income, at which the schools are likely to tip and become increasingly segregated.